GlobalData’s latest Brexit tracker, Brexit and the Healthcare Industry – Implications for Pharma, Q3 2019 reveals that the pharma industry is divided on how Brexit will playout. Anna Tobin reports
The GlobalData Brexit tracker, Brexit and the Healthcare Industry – Implications for Pharma, Q3 2019, found that healthcare industry professionals are divided when it comes to predicting Brexit’s outcome post January 31, 2020; 26% of UK respondents and 43% of US respondents, predict that there will be a further delay once the current deadline is reached. While 43% of EU respondents believe that Brexit could be achieved by renegotiating the current Withdrawal Agreement.
“The UK’s initial withdrawal date was March 29, 2019, but after seven months of ongoing political division, economical paralysis and unsuccessful attempts to deliver Brexit, it seems that the pharma industry is still unsure whether the stagnation period is going to end. Nevertheless, compared to data we had before the previous October 31 Brexit deadline; this time, the respondents seemed to gain more confidence that a no-deal Brexit scenario can be avoided,” said Urte Jakimaviciute, senior director of market research at GlobalData.
“Further delay to Brexit may be associated with pharma predicting a hung parliament or even a change in the ruling party. While most of the latest public opinion polls predict the victory of the Conservatives, winning may not be enough. Under a Conservatives-led majority government, the UK might split from the EU by January 31, ending the Brexit saga. However, if Boris Johnson wins without a majority, with his deal being stuck in the Commons, he could be forced to hold another referendum.
“While the pharma industry continuously indicates that the preferred outcome of Brexit is no Brexit, it is easier said than done. If pro-referendum parties won, due to time needed to get the referendum organised, Brexit would not be resolved before the deadline. While revoking Article 50 might seem an easier solution, there are no certain directions coming from legislative bodies on whether a new Prime Minister would need an approval from parliament to revoke or if the UK would need to have a referendum to overrun a referendum.
“The only certain thing about Brexit is uncertainty. Conservatives securing a majority may throw the UK into post-Brexit economic slowdown and regulatory limbo. Then again, any other election outcome might bring the UK’s and Brexit’s fate back into the hands of the EU.”